Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Slovenia · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Slovenia 0-0 Scotland, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Slovenia 0-0 Scotland
Original prediction
Slovenia
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 15:53 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.50 | 37.4% | 40.7% | 3.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.12 | 30.1% | 30.2% | 0.1 pts |
| Away | 2.89 | 32.5% | 29.1% | -3.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.12 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.2 pts
Projected Score
Slovenia 0–0 Scotland
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Slovenia
Probability
40.7%
Model confidence
40.7%
Slovenia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SloveniaLDWLW
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
ScotlandWWLLW
GF 12 · GA 3 · avg 2.40/0.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
SloveniaScotland
33.3Attack33.3
62.5Defence54.2
50.0Form41.7
50.2Power45.9
1.09xG0.77