Sloveniavs
FYR Macedonia
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Nations League · 9/29/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FYR Macedonia · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-1 (14%), 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Slovenia 2-0 FYR Macedonia
Original prediction
FYR Macedonia
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 15:54 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.59 | 59.1% | 35.4% | -23.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.59 | 26.2% | 28.6% | 2.4 pts |
| Away | 6.40 | 14.7% | 36.0% | 21.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
21.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–114%
- 2.1–114%
- 3.0–013%
Predicted outcome
FYR Macedonia
Probability
36.0%
Model confidence
36.0%
FYR Macedonia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
GF 0 · GA 7 · avg 0.00/1.40