Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Slovakia · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Slovakia 0-0 Moldova, with an exact score probability of 20%.
Prediction record
Final result
Slovakia 2-0 Moldova
Original prediction
Slovakia
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 15:53 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.14 | 82.8% | 50.3% | -32.5 pts |
| Draw | 7.64 | 12.3% | 26.9% | 14.6 pts |
| Away | 19.48 | 4.8% | 22.8% | 18.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.14 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-32.5 pts
Projected Score
Slovakia 0–0 Moldova
Exact score probability: 20%
Predicted outcome
Slovakia
Probability
50.3%
Model confidence
50.3%
Slovakia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SlovakiaDWWLL
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
MoldovaDDLLL
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
SlovakiaMoldova
41.7Attack41.7
75.0Defence91.7
58.3Form75.0
60.3Power70.9
0.97xG0.71