Slovakiavs
Kazakhstan
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Nations League · 9/29/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Slovakia · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Slovakia 2-0 Kazakhstan, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Slovakia 2-1 Kazakhstan
Original prediction
Slovakia
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 15:54 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.22 | 77.1% | 67.6% | -9.6 pts |
| Draw | 6.04 | 15.6% | 20.2% | 4.7 pts |
| Away | 12.87 | 7.3% | 12.2% | 4.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.22 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.6 pts
Projected Score
Slovakia 2–0 Kazakhstan
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Slovakia
Probability
67.6%
Model confidence
67.6%
Slovakia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SlovakiaWDWWL
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
KazakhstanDLDLL
GF 4 · GA 10 · avg 0.80/2.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
SlovakiaKazakhstan
41.7Attack0.0
75.0Defence16.7
58.3Form5.6
60.3Power13.0
1.94xG0.45