Sliema Wanderersvs
Marsaxlokk
COMPLETEDMalta · Premier League · 10/24/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Marsaxlokk · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (9%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sliema Wanderers 2-1 Marsaxlokk
Original prediction
Marsaxlokk
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 12:44 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.33 | 38.8% | 35.8% | -3.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.14 | 28.8% | 26.8% | -2.0 pts |
| Away | 2.80 | 32.3% | 37.4% | 5.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–19%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
Marsaxlokk
Probability
37.4%
Model confidence
37.4%
Marsaxlokk has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
GF 10 · GA 9 · avg 2.00/1.80