Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sleipner · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 3-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sleipner 2-0 Fittja
Original prediction
Sleipner
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 16:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.39 | 65.1% | 51.5% | -13.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.69 | 19.3% | 24.1% | 4.8 pts |
| Away | 5.80 | 15.6% | 24.4% | 8.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.39 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.1–18%
- 3.3–18%
Predicted outcome
Sleipner
Probability
51.5%
Model confidence
51.5%
Sleipner has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SleipnerDDLWW
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
FittjaLLWLD
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
SleipnerFittja
68.1Attack51.4
50.0Defence47.2
62.5Form45.8
60.3Power50.0
2.45xG1.40