Slavia Sofiavs
Spartak Varna
COMPLETEDBulgaria · First League · 9/13/2026, 12:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Slavia Sofia · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Slavia Sofia 1-0 Spartak Varna, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Slavia Sofia 0-0 Spartak Varna
Original prediction
Slavia Sofia
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.04 | 45.3% | 50.8% | 5.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.18 | 29.0% | 27.6% | -1.4 pts |
| Away | 3.60 | 25.7% | 21.6% | -4.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.18 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.5 pts
Projected Score
Slavia Sofia 1–0 Spartak Varna
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Slavia Sofia
Probability
50.8%
Model confidence
50.8%
Slavia Sofia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80
GF 4 · GA 12 · avg 0.80/2.40