Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest
Saturday, 1 August 202616:00Updated today
Slavia Sofia II

Slavia Sofia II

Home
W
vs
16:00
Levski Sofia II

Levski Sofia II

Away
W
GoalVio prediction
40% confidence
Slavia Sofia II(40%)
Most likely exact score1-0
Win probability
Slavia Sofia II
40%
Draw
27%
Levski Sofia II
33%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Slavia Sofia II
100
Levski Sofia II
94
Defence
Slavia Sofia II
66
Levski Sofia II
91
Momentum
Slavia Sofia II
100
Levski Sofia II
100
Danger (xG)
Slavia Sofia II
7.20
Levski Sofia II
2.70
Both teams to score
No

The model projects 2.16 xG for Slavia Sofia II and 0.44 xG for Levski Sofia II. Levski Sofia II's projected xG of 0.44 is not sufficient to make scoring a reliable expectation — the model does not see them generating enough high-quality chances to break through.The projected 2-0 scoreline features a clean sheet for one side. The xG distribution suggests Slavia Sofia II will score, but Levski Sofia II's attacking output falls below the threshold the model requires to project both teams scoring.Slavia Sofia II's defensive record — 4 clean sheets in 10 matches — combined with Levski Sofia II's limited attacking output (3 clean sheets conceded in 10 games) supports the model's projection of at least one side keeping a clean sheet.

Over 2.5 goals
No

The model projects a combined xG of 2.61 — elevated attacking volume. A combined xG below 2.5 is the model's primary signal that the match is unlikely to produce more than two goals, and this fixture falls below that threshold.The projected 2-0 scoreline stays under the 2.5-goal mark. The probability grid is dominated by scorelines of two goals or fewer, with the over 2.5 market requiring a result that sits outside the model's most likely outcomes.

xG for (Slavia Sofia II)
7.20
avg per match
xG for (Levski Sofia II)
2.70
avg per match
xG against (Slavia Sofia II)
0.90
avg per match
xG against (Levski Sofia II)
0.00
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
Slavia Sofia IISlavia Sofia II
W
Levski Sofia IILevski Sofia II
W

Probability breakdown

40% confidence
Slavia Sofia II40%
Draw27%
Levski Sofia II33%

Slavia Sofia II leads with 40% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Slavia Sofia II Backed to Win — Model Projects 1-0

Slavia Sofia II host Levski Sofia II in Third League - Southwest. Slavia Sofia II have recorded WWLWDW in recent matches while Levski Sofia II arrive with a run of LDLWLL.

Key factors

: 🎯 xG Advantage The Goalvio xG model projects 2.16 expected goals for Slavia Sofia II against 0.44 for Levski Sofia II — a significant advantage that translates into a higher win probability. xG is the model's most reliable predictor of match outcomes.
: 🏟️ Home Advantage Goalvio applies an 8% xG boost for home teams based on empirical data showing home sides score 10–15% more goals at their own ground. Slavia Sofia II's Elo-adjusted home strength gives them a 57% expected score in this fixture — a factor that tips the balance when the underlying numbers are close.
: 📈 Recent Form Slavia Sofia II arrive in better recent form — 4 wins from 10 matches (WWLWDW) against Levski Sofia II's 1. Form over the last 5–6 games is one of the most predictive short-term signals in the model, capturing momentum that longer-term averages can miss.

Why GoalVio backs this

Slavia Sofia II are generating a dominant xG advantage — 2.16 projected against 0.44 for Levski Sofia II. xG measures the quality of chances created, not just shots. A gap of 1.72 is the clearest signal in the model that Slavia Sofia II are the materially more dangerous side in this fixture.

Biggest risk: The model's projection is based on averages — individual moments of quality, tactical adjustments, or set-piece situations can always override statistical trends. Slavia Sofia II are favoured, but football rarely follows the script exactly.

Risk factors

  • Live conditions — weather, team news, and in-game momentum — can always override statistical projections.
  • The Poisson model works on averages — individual moments of quality can decide matches that data suggests should be close.

Recent form

Slavia Sofia II

Slavia Sofia II

W
vs Kyustendil
17 May 2026
81
Levski Sofia II

Levski Sofia II

W
vs Vitosha Bistritsa
16 May 2026
30

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Slavia Sofia II vs Levski Sofia II?

GoalVio's model predicts Slavia Sofia II to win with 40% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Slavia Sofia II vs Levski Sofia II?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 1-0.

Will both teams score in Slavia Sofia II vs Levski Sofia II?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Slavia Sofia II vs Levski Sofia II?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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