Slask Wroclawvs
Lech Poznan
COMPLETEDPoland · Ekstraklasa · 10/10/2026, 3:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lech Poznan · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (12%), 0-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Slask Wroclaw 1-4 Lech Poznan
Original prediction
Lech Poznan
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 01:47 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.81 | 19.2% | 15.2% | -4.1 pts |
| Draw | 4.23 | 21.9% | 19.8% | -2.1 pts |
| Away | 1.57 | 58.9% | 65.0% | 6.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.57 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–212%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.1–210%
Predicted outcome
Lech Poznan
Probability
65.0%
Model confidence
65.0%
Lech Poznan has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00
GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80