CupCup
Saturday, 1 August 202616:00Updated today
Slaný

Slaný

Home
D
vs
16:00
Sokol Brozany

Sokol Brozany

Away
D
SK Slany
GoalVio prediction
42% confidence
Slaný(42%)
Most likely exact score2-1
Win probability
Slaný
42%
Draw
24%
Sokol Brozany
34%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Slaný
9
Sokol Brozany
34
Defence
Slaný
91
Sokol Brozany
66
Momentum
Slaný
33
Sokol Brozany
33
Danger (xG)
Slaný
0.00
Sokol Brozany
0.90
Both teams to score
Yes

The model projects 1.70 xG for Slaný and 1.46 xG for Sokol Brozany — strong and meaningful attacking threat respectively. Both sides are generating enough chance quality to make scoring a realistic expectation, which is the primary driver of the BTTS projection.The projected 2-1 scoreline reflects both teams contributing to the goal tally. The xG gap between the sides is narrow (0.24), meaning neither defence is expected to completely shut the other out.

Over 2.5 goals
Yes

The model projects a combined xG of 3.16 — elevated attacking volume for this fixture. A combined xG above 2.5 is the model's primary signal that the match is likely to produce more than two goals, and this fixture clears that threshold.The projected 2-1 scoreline clears the 2.5-goal threshold — 3 goals in the most likely outcome. With both sides generating elevated xG, multiple scoreline combinations in the probability grid exceed 2.5 goals.

xG for (Slaný)
0.00
avg per match
xG for (Sokol Brozany)
0.90
avg per match
xG against (Slaný)
0.00
avg per match
xG against (Sokol Brozany)
0.90
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
SlanýSlaný
D
Sokol BrozanySokol Brozany
D

Probability breakdown

42% confidence
Slaný42%
Draw24%
Sokol Brozany34%

Slaný leads with 42% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Slaný Narrow Edge — Model Projects 2-1

Slaný take on Sokol Brozany in Cup.

Key factors

: 🏟️ Home Advantage Goalvio applies an 8% xG boost for home teams based on empirical data showing home sides score 10–15% more goals at their own ground. Slaný's Elo-adjusted home strength gives them a 57% expected score in this fixture — a factor that tips the balance when the underlying numbers are close.
: ⚠️ Upset Risk Sokol Brozany have won 1 of their last 10 matches — a run of form that keeps this fixture competitive. While Slaný carry the stronger underlying metrics, Sokol Brozany's recent results mean the gap is narrower than the headline verdict implies.

Why GoalVio backs this

Slaný have a structural home advantage that the model quantifies directly. Goalvio applies an 8% xG boost for home teams — empirically derived from home sides scoring 10–15% more goals on their own ground. The Elo model gives Slaný a 57% expected score in this fixture. When the underlying metrics are otherwise close, home advantage is often the decisive tipping factor.

Biggest risk: The xG gap between these sides is narrow — a small swing in form, a set-piece goal, or a tactical adjustment could flip the result. The model favours Slaný, but this is not a fixture where the outcome is a foregone conclusion. If Sokol Brozany score first, the game becomes genuinely open.

Risk factors

  • The xG gap is narrow at 0.24 — a small swing in form or tactics could flip the result.
  • With both teams expected to score, the game could remain open until the final whistle — late goals are a real possibility.
  • Live conditions — weather, team news, and in-game momentum — can always override statistical projections.

Recent form

Slaný

Slaný

D
vs Olympie Březová
16 May 2026
00
Sokol Brozany

Sokol Brozany

D
@ Neratovice-Byškovice
16 May 2026
11

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Slaný vs Sokol Brozany?

GoalVio's model predicts Slaný to win with 42% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Slaný vs Sokol Brozany?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 2-1.

Will both teams score in Slaný vs Sokol Brozany?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: Yes — both teams are expected to score.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Slaný vs Sokol Brozany?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: Yes.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more