Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aresimi · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-2
Skopje are 5W-0D-0L in their last 5 (WWWWW), averaging 2.80 scored and 0.40 conceded, while Aresimi are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WLDWW), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Aresimi hold a 17.2-point power-rating edge (45.8 v 62.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-2 the most likely exact scoreline at 7.0% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Aresimi holds the strongest overall chance at 46% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 84% BTTS chance and 87% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Aresimi
Probability
46.3%
Model confidence
7.0%
Aresimi has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 14 · GA 2 · avg 2.80/0.40
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80