SKN ST. Poltenvs
Red Bull Salzburg
COMPLETEDAustria · Cup · 9/6/2026, 3:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Red Bull Salzburg · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (8%), 2-1 (8%), 2-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
SKN ST. Polten 0-3 Red Bull Salzburg
Original prediction
Red Bull Salzburg
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 8.80 | 10.5% | 31.8% | 21.3 pts |
| Draw | 6.13 | 15.0% | 23.0% | 8.0 pts |
| Away | 1.24 | 74.5% | 45.3% | -29.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.24 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-29.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–18%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.2–28%
Predicted outcome
Red Bull Salzburg
Probability
45.3%
Model confidence
45.3%
Red Bull Salzburg has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 1 · GA 4 · avg 0.20/0.80
GF 16 · GA 2 · avg 3.20/0.40