Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Skiljebo · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 4-0 (15%), 5-0 (13%), 3-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Skiljebo 2-1 Korsnäs
Original prediction
Skiljebo
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.20 | 75.7% | 88.9% | 13.2 pts |
| Draw | 6.05 | 14.9% | 7.4% | -7.5 pts |
| Away | 9.65 | 9.4% | 3.7% | -5.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.20 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
13.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.4–015%
- 2.5–013%
- 3.3–013%
Predicted outcome
Skiljebo
Probability
88.9%
Model confidence
88.9%
Skiljebo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SkiljeboWDWWW
GF 13 · GA 7 · avg 2.60/1.40
BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
KorsnäsLDLDL
GF 5 · GA 14 · avg 1.00/2.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
SkiljeboKorsnäs
78.3Attack31.7
61.7Defence21.7
73.3Form18.3
71.5Power27.4
4.50xG0.60