Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Valerenga · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Skeid 1-4 Valerenga
Original prediction
Valerenga
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 20:47 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 6.66 | 13.7% | 33.0% | 19.3 pts |
| Draw | 5.80 | 15.7% | 24.1% | 8.4 pts |
| Away | 1.29 | 70.6% | 42.9% | -27.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.29 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-27.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Valerenga
Probability
42.9%
Model confidence
42.9%
Valerenga has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SkeidLWDLL
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
ValerengaLDLDL
GF 11 · GA 15 · avg 2.20/3.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
SkeidValerenga
50.0Attack50.0
50.0Defence50.0
50.0Form50.0
50.0Power50.0
1.89xG1.61