Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Skedsmo · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-2 (7%), 3-2 (7%), 2-1 (6%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Skedsmo 1-3 Fløya
Original prediction
Skedsmo
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 September 2026 at 09:47 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.81 | 49.9% | 51.2% | 1.2 pts |
| Draw | 4.10 | 22.1% | 18.4% | -3.6 pts |
| Away | 3.23 | 28.0% | 30.4% | 2.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–27%
- 2.3–27%
- 3.2–16%
Predicted outcome
Skedsmo
Probability
51.2%
Model confidence
51.2%
Skedsmo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SkedsmoDWWWD
GF 13 · GA 4 · avg 2.60/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
FløyaWWWLW
GF 18 · GA 9 · avg 3.60/1.80
BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
SkedsmoFløya
78.8Attack97.0
59.1Defence47.0
75.8Form68.2
70.7Power68.6
2.90xG2.24