SKA Khabarovsk IIvs
Metallurg Lipetsk
COMPLETEDRussia · Second League - Group 3 · 9/12/2026, 4:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Metallurg Lipetsk · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
SKA Khabarovsk II 1-3 Metallurg Lipetsk
Original prediction
Metallurg Lipetsk
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.18 | 28.6% | 22.6% | -6.0 pts |
| Draw | 2.75 | 33.1% | 23.0% | -10.1 pts |
| Away | 2.37 | 38.4% | 54.5% | 16.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.37 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
16.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–29%
Predicted outcome
Metallurg Lipetsk
Probability
54.5%
Model confidence
54.5%
Metallurg Lipetsk has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.60/1.20
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60