Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
SJK · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: SJK 1-0 Mariehamn, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
SJK 2-1 Mariehamn
Original prediction
SJK
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.79 | 51.7% | 57.2% | 5.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.66 | 25.3% | 24.5% | -0.8 pts |
| Away | 4.02 | 23.0% | 18.3% | -4.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.79 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.4 pts
Projected Score
SJK 1–0 Mariehamn
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
SJK
Probability
57.2%
Model confidence
57.2%
SJK has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SJKDDDLL
GF 2 · GA 5 · avg 0.40/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
MariehamnWLWWW
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
SJKMariehamn
36.1Attack26.4
52.8Defence37.5
29.2Form23.6
41.0Power31.9
1.49xG0.67