Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Gnistan · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
SJK are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WLLLW), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Gnistan are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (LWWWL), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Gnistan hold an 11.2-point power-rating edge (42.3 v 53.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 13.7% in the Veikkausliiga, while Gnistan holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 53% BTTS chance and 47% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Gnistan
Probability
44.3%
Model confidence
13.7%
Gnistan has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00