Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sivasspor · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (11%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sivasspor 1-1 Sarıyer
Original prediction
Sivasspor
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 17:25 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.32 | 39.2% | 44.5% | 5.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.19 | 28.5% | 25.9% | -2.6 pts |
| Away | 2.82 | 32.3% | 29.6% | -2.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.19 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Sivasspor
Probability
44.5%
Model confidence
44.5%
Sivasspor has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SivassporDWDDW
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
BTTS 5/5O2.5 2/5
SarıyerLDWDL
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
SivassporSarıyer
46.7Attack43.3
56.7Defence53.3
40.0Form50.0
49.4Power50.8
1.39xG1.04