Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Sivasspor 0-0 Muğlaspor, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Sivasspor 1-1 Muğlaspor
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.96 | 46.6% | 36.6% | -10.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.31 | 27.5% | 30.6% | 3.1 pts |
| Away | 3.51 | 25.9% | 32.8% | 6.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 2.31 · Draw 2.31 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.1 pts
Projected Score
Sivasspor 0–0 Muğlaspor
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
30.6%
Model confidence
36.6%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SivassporWDLDL
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
MuğlasporDWWDD
GF 5 · GA 2 · avg 1.00/0.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
SivassporMuğlaspor
38.9Attack27.8
50.0Defence77.8
33.3Form50.0
43.7Power54.0
0.91xG0.98