Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Malkiya · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sitra 3-0 Malkiya
Original prediction
Malkiya
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.18 | 41.4% | 32.6% | -8.8 pts |
| Draw | 2.89 | 31.3% | 27.4% | -3.9 pts |
| Away | 3.32 | 27.3% | 40.0% | 12.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
12.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–18%
Predicted outcome
Malkiya
Probability
40.0%
Model confidence
40.0%
Malkiya has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SitraWWLWL
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
MalkiyaLLWWW
GF 8 · GA 3 · avg 1.60/0.60
BTTS 0/5O2.5 2/5
SitraMalkiya
43.9Attack88.9
50.0Defence55.6
39.4Form77.8
47.0Power75.3
1.21xG1.70