Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al Riffa · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (13%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sitra 2-3 Al Riffa
Original prediction
Al Riffa
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 7 October 2026 at 08:52 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 6.17 | 14.6% | 24.3% | 9.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.85 | 23.5% | 26.6% | 3.1 pts |
| Away | 1.46 | 61.9% | 49.1% | -12.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.46 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-12.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–113%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
Al Riffa
Probability
49.1%
Model confidence
49.1%
Al Riffa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SitraWLDDW
GF 5 · GA 2 · avg 1.00/0.40
BTTS 0/5O2.5 1/5
Al RiffaWLDDW
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
SitraAl Riffa
33.3Attack80.0
86.7Defence86.7
53.3Form73.3
57.8Power77.4
0.91xG1.35