Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sitra · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sitra 0-2 Al Najma
Original prediction
Sitra
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 October 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.85 | 48.8% | 47.4% | -1.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.28 | 27.6% | 26.7% | -0.9 pts |
| Away | 3.83 | 23.6% | 25.9% | 2.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
Sitra
Probability
47.4%
Model confidence
47.4%
Sitra has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SitraDDWWW
GF 7 · GA 1 · avg 1.40/0.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
Al NajmaLWLWW
GF 11 · GA 12 · avg 2.20/2.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
SitraAl Najma
33.3Attack55.6
100.0Defence0.0
55.6Form33.3
62.7Power32.2
1.70xG1.03