Sisaket Unitedvs
BG Pathum United
COMPLETEDThailand · Thai League 1 · 10/18/2026, 11:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
BG Pathum United · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (9%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sisaket United 1-1 BG Pathum United
Original prediction
BG Pathum United
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 19:45 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.59 | 25.1% | 35.3% | 10.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.01 | 29.9% | 27.7% | -2.2 pts |
| Away | 2.00 | 45.0% | 37.0% | -8.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.01 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–09%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
BG Pathum United
Probability
37.0%
Model confidence
37.0%
BG Pathum United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80