Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sirius · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-1 (8%), 2-1 (8%), 4-1 (6%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sirius 0-1 Malmo FF
Original prediction
Sirius
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.77 | 52.5% | 64.6% | 12.1 pts |
| Draw | 4.14 | 22.5% | 16.7% | -5.8 pts |
| Away | 3.73 | 25.0% | 18.7% | -6.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
12.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–18%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.4–16%
Predicted outcome
Sirius
Probability
64.6%
Model confidence
64.6%
Sirius has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SiriusWLLDW
GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
Malmo FFWLWLW
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
SiriusMalmo FF
87.0Attack59.3
51.9Defence44.4
77.8Form48.1
72.8Power51.6
3.08xG1.47