Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sirius · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-0
Sirius are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (DWWWW), averaging 2.80 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Kalmar FF are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (WDLLL), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Sirius hold a 35.4-point power-rating edge (80.9 v 45.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 75.2% in the Allsvenskan, while Sirius holds the strongest overall chance at 75% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 55% BTTS chance and 70% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Sirius
Probability
75.2%
Model confidence
75.2%
Sirius has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 14 · GA 5 · avg 2.80/1.00
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40