Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sirius · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Sirius are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (WWWDW), averaging 2.60 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Gais are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (WDWWD), averaging 2.00 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Sirius hold a 26.9-point power-rating edge (80.9 v 54.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 54.7% in the Allsvenskan, while Sirius holds the strongest overall chance at 55% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 49% BTTS chance and 49% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Sirius
Probability
54.7%
Model confidence
54.7%
Sirius has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 8 · avg 2.60/1.60
GF 10 · GA 3 · avg 2.00/0.60