Sirensvs
Naxxar Lions
COMPLETEDMalta · Challenge League · 10/10/2026, 3:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sirens · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sirens 2-3 Naxxar Lions
Original prediction
Sirens
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 15 September 2026 at 19:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.96 | 30.6% | 37.9% | 7.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.55 | 25.4% | 26.6% | 1.1 pts |
| Away | 2.05 | 44.0% | 35.5% | -8.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Sirens
Probability
37.9%
Model confidence
37.9%
Sirens has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SirensDWLLL
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Naxxar LionsWLLLD
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
SirensNaxxar Lions
33.3Attack83.3
83.3Defence33.3
66.7Form50.0
64.8Power56.2
1.64xG1.36