Sint Maartenvs
St. Vincent / Grenadines
COMPLETEDWorld · CONCACAF Nations League · 10/3/2026, 9:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
St. Vincent / Grenadines · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sint Maarten 2-4 St. Vincent / Grenadines
Original prediction
St. Vincent / Grenadines
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 16 September 2026 at 18:21 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.08 | 22.4% | 29.4% | 7.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.51 | 26.0% | 26.9% | 0.9 pts |
| Away | 1.77 | 51.6% | 43.7% | -7.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.77 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–18%
Predicted outcome
St. Vincent / Grenadines
Probability
43.7%
Model confidence
43.7%
St. Vincent / Grenadines has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 12 · avg 0.40/2.40
GF 12 · GA 2 · avg 2.40/0.40