Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Simba · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Simba 1-0 Mashujaa, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Simba 6-1 Mashujaa
Original prediction
Simba
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 15 September 2026 at 10:23 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.19 | 75.8% | 60.9% | -14.9 pts |
| Draw | 5.22 | 17.3% | 23.9% | 6.6 pts |
| Away | 13.14 | 6.9% | 15.2% | 8.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.19 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-14.9 pts
Projected Score
Simba 1–0 Mashujaa
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Simba
Probability
60.9%
Model confidence
60.9%
Simba has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SimbaWWWWW
GF 13 · GA 2 · avg 2.60/0.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
MashujaaWWLWL
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
SimbaMashujaa
61.9Attack38.1
85.7Defence66.7
100.0Form57.1
85.9Power57.1
1.46xG0.61