Simbavs
Geita Gold
COMPLETEDTanzania · Ligi kuu Bara · 8/31/2026, 3:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Simba · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (11%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Simba 2-0 Geita Gold
Original prediction
Simba
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.10 | 81.5% | 53.8% | -27.7 pts |
| Draw | 6.52 | 13.8% | 23.5% | 9.8 pts |
| Away | 18.67 | 4.8% | 22.7% | 17.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.10 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-27.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
Simba
Probability
53.8%
Model confidence
53.8%
Simba has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SimbaWWWWW
GF 8 · GA 2 · avg 1.60/0.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Geita GoldDWLWL
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
SimbaGeita Gold
58.3Attack75.0
83.3Defence58.3
100.0Form58.3
84.6Power62.9
1.51xG1.05