Simbavs
Coastal Union
COMPLETEDTanzania · Ligi kuu Bara · 8/27/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Simba · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (14%), 1-0 (13%), 1-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Simba 1-0 Coastal Union
Original prediction
Simba
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.15 | 78.1% | 61.6% | -16.5 pts |
| Draw | 5.87 | 15.3% | 22.0% | 6.7 pts |
| Away | 13.63 | 6.6% | 16.4% | 9.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.15 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-16.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–014%
- 2.1–013%
- 3.1–111%
Predicted outcome
Simba
Probability
61.6%
Model confidence
61.6%
Simba has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SimbaWWWWW
GF 9 · GA 2 · avg 1.80/0.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Coastal UnionDLLWL
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
SimbaCoastal Union
66.7Attack22.2
77.8Defence33.3
100.0Form11.1
85.2Power25.8
1.95xG0.70