Siheung Citizenvs
Changwon City
COMPLETEDSouth-Korea · K3 League · 9/13/2026, 8:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Siheung Citizen · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Siheung Citizen 1-0 Changwon City, with an exact score probability of 20%.
Prediction record
Final result
Siheung Citizen 3-1 Changwon City
Original prediction
Siheung Citizen
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.61 | 56.3% | 57.2% | 0.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.48 | 26.1% | 26.7% | 0.6 pts |
| Away | 5.16 | 17.6% | 16.1% | -1.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.61 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.9 pts
Projected Score
Siheung Citizen 1–0 Changwon City
Exact score probability: 20%
Predicted outcome
Siheung Citizen
Probability
57.2%
Model confidence
57.2%
Siheung Citizen has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
GF 6 · GA 12 · avg 1.20/2.40