Sierra Leonevs
Zimbabwe
COMPLETEDWorld · Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification · 9/24/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sierra Leone · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (10%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sierra Leone 2-3 Zimbabwe
Original prediction
Sierra Leone
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 09:51 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.46 | 36.9% | 38.5% | 1.6 pts |
| Draw | 2.81 | 32.4% | 29.9% | -2.5 pts |
| Away | 2.97 | 30.7% | 31.6% | 1.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
Sierra Leone
Probability
38.5%
Model confidence
38.5%
Sierra Leone has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 11 · avg 1.20/2.20
GF 7 · GA 3 · avg 1.40/0.60