Siarka Tarnobrzegvs
Zaglebie Lubin
COMPLETEDPoland · Cup · 9/1/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Zaglebie Lubin · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Siarka Tarnobrzeg 3-2 Zaglebie Lubin
Original prediction
Zaglebie Lubin
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 8.41 | 10.7% | 29.2% | 18.4 pts |
| Draw | 5.18 | 17.4% | 24.5% | 7.1 pts |
| Away | 1.26 | 71.9% | 46.4% | -25.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-25.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Zaglebie Lubin
Probability
46.4%
Model confidence
46.4%
Zaglebie Lubin has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80