GGOALVIO

England · EFL Trophy · 10/8/2024, 6:30:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Birmingham · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 0-2

Highconfidence

Shrewsbury are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (DLDLL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Birmingham are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (LWWWW), averaging 1.80 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Birmingham hold a 30.8-point power-rating edge (43.8 v 74.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-2 the most likely exact scoreline at 65.9% in the EFL Trophy, while Birmingham holds the strongest overall chance at 66% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 57% BTTS chance and 65% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Birmingham

Probability

65.9%

Model confidence

65.9%

Birmingham has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

ShrewsburyDLDLL

GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60

BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
BirminghamLWWWW

GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80

BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
ShrewsburyBirmingham
33.3Attack79.2
44.4Defence70.8
44.4Form79.2
43.8Power74.6
0.97xG2.44
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