Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Shortan · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Projected score: Shortan 2-0 Qiziriq, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Shortan 3-0 Qiziriq
Original prediction
Shortan
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.14 | 80.9% | 85.3% | 4.4 pts |
| Draw | 7.27 | 12.6% | 10.6% | -2.0 pts |
| Away | 14.22 | 6.5% | 4.1% | -2.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.14 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.4 pts
Projected Score
Shortan 2–0 Qiziriq
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Shortan
Probability
85.3%
Model confidence
85.3%
Shortan has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ShortanWLLWD
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
QiziriqLLLLL
GF 2 · GA 11 · avg 0.40/2.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
ShortanQiziriq
51.9Attack20.4
64.8Defence24.1
66.7Form7.4
63.0Power21.8
2.85xG0.44