Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Shortan · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Shortan 1-0 Jayxun, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Shortan 3-1 Jayxun
Original prediction
Shortan
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 18:36 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.27 | 71.4% | 66.8% | -4.6 pts |
| Draw | 4.93 | 18.4% | 21.2% | 2.8 pts |
| Away | 8.89 | 10.2% | 12.0% | 1.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.27 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.6 pts
Projected Score
Shortan 1–0 Jayxun
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Shortan
Probability
66.8%
Model confidence
66.8%
Shortan has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ShortanWWWLL
GF 12 · GA 5 · avg 2.40/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
JayxunLWWLW
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
ShortanJayxun
58.3Attack36.7
68.3Defence58.3
70.0Form40.0
66.4Power45.7
1.67xG0.59