Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aral · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (13%), 0-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Shortan 1-0 Aral
Original prediction
Aral
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 September 2026 at 00:50 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.12 | 42.4% | 31.2% | -11.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.41 | 26.4% | 26.5% | 0.1 pts |
| Away | 2.88 | 31.2% | 42.3% | 11.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
11.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–113%
- 3.0–013%
Predicted outcome
Aral
Probability
42.3%
Model confidence
42.3%
Aral has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ShortanLDWWW
GF 12 · GA 4 · avg 2.40/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
AralWWWWW
GF 14 · GA 3 · avg 2.80/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
ShortanAral
58.0Attack66.7
66.7Defence79.7
66.7Form81.2
64.6Power76.6
0.91xG1.26