Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sholing · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sholing 2-0 SE Dons
Original prediction
Sholing
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 7 October 2026 at 20:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.74 | 52.3% | 41.1% | -11.1 pts |
| Draw | 4.24 | 21.4% | 24.6% | 3.2 pts |
| Away | 3.45 | 26.3% | 34.2% | 7.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.74 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Sholing
Probability
41.1%
Model confidence
41.1%
Sholing has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SholingLDWWD
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
SE DonsWWW
GF 10 · GA 3 · avg 3.33/1.00
BTTS 2/3O2.5 2/3
SholingSE Dons
55.6Attack100.0
88.9Defence66.7
100.0Form100.0
85.2Power89.2
1.63xG1.61