Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Alashkert · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (14%), 0-1 (13%), 1-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Shirak 0-1 Alashkert
Original prediction
Alashkert
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 16:53 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.64 | 16.1% | 15.3% | -0.8 pts |
| Draw | 4.09 | 22.2% | 21.3% | -0.8 pts |
| Away | 1.47 | 61.8% | 63.4% | 1.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.47 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–214%
- 2.0–113%
- 3.1–110%
Predicted outcome
Alashkert
Probability
63.4%
Model confidence
63.4%
Alashkert has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ShirakDLLLW
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
AlashkertWDDDW
GF 14 · GA 6 · avg 2.80/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
ShirakAlashkert
40.0Attack80.0
56.7Defence73.3
36.7Form63.3
45.1Power70.0
0.65xG2.05