Shimshon Tel Avivvs
Nordia Jerusalem
COMPLETEDIsrael · Liga Alef · 10/23/2026, 10:35:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Shimshon Tel Aviv · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-0 (15%), 2-0 (14%), 4-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Shimshon Tel Aviv 3-0 Nordia Jerusalem
Original prediction
Shimshon Tel Aviv
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 18:38 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.11 | 81.2% | 77.8% | -3.4 pts |
| Draw | 6.96 | 12.9% | 13.7% | 0.8 pts |
| Away | 15.16 | 5.9% | 8.6% | 2.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.11 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–015%
- 2.2–014%
- 3.4–012%
Predicted outcome
Shimshon Tel Aviv
Probability
77.8%
Model confidence
77.8%
Shimshon Tel Aviv has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80
GF 2 · GA 17 · avg 0.40/3.40