Shimizu S-pulsevs
V-varen Nagasaki
COMPLETEDJapan · Emperor Cup · 10/7/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Shimizu S-pulse · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Shimizu S-pulse 2-1 V-varen Nagasaki
Original prediction
Shimizu S-pulse
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 01:45 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.14 | 42.4% | 40.9% | -1.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.20 | 28.4% | 27.0% | -1.4 pts |
| Away | 3.11 | 29.2% | 32.1% | 2.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.14 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
Shimizu S-pulse
Probability
40.9%
Model confidence
40.9%
Shimizu S-pulse has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20