Shimizu S-pulsevs
Machida Zelvia
COMPLETEDJapan · J1 League · 10/21/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Machida Zelvia · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Shimizu S-pulse 0-1 Machida Zelvia, with an exact score probability of 15%.
Prediction record
Final result
Shimizu S-pulse 0-5 Machida Zelvia
Original prediction
Machida Zelvia
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:42 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.57 | 26.2% | 17.2% | -9.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.31 | 28.3% | 23.6% | -4.7 pts |
| Away | 2.06 | 45.5% | 59.2% | 13.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.06 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
13.7 pts
Projected Score
Shimizu S-pulse 0–1 Machida Zelvia
Exact score probability: 15%
Predicted outcome
Machida Zelvia
Probability
59.2%
Model confidence
59.2%
Machida Zelvia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
GF 7 · GA 1 · avg 1.40/0.20