Shimizu S-pulsevs
Kashiwa Reysol
COMPLETEDJapan · J1 League · 8/29/2026, 9:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Kashiwa Reysol · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (10%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Shimizu S-pulse 0-1 Kashiwa Reysol
Original prediction
Kashiwa Reysol
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:53 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.54 | 26.4% | 29.3% | 2.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.37 | 27.8% | 27.5% | -0.2 pts |
| Away | 2.04 | 45.8% | 43.1% | -2.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.04 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
Kashiwa Reysol
Probability
43.1%
Model confidence
43.1%
Kashiwa Reysol has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00