Shimizu S-pulsevs
JEF United Chiba
COMPLETEDJapan · J1 League · 9/19/2026, 9:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Shimizu S-pulse · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Shimizu S-pulse 1-0 JEF United Chiba, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Shimizu S-pulse 2-1 JEF United Chiba
Original prediction
Shimizu S-pulse
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 20:42 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.88 | 49.7% | 53.4% | 3.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.47 | 26.9% | 26.1% | -0.8 pts |
| Away | 3.99 | 23.4% | 20.4% | -2.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.88 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.7 pts
Projected Score
Shimizu S-pulse 1–0 JEF United Chiba
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Shimizu S-pulse
Probability
53.4%
Model confidence
53.4%
Shimizu S-pulse has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40