Shimizu S-pulsevs
Gamba Osaka
COMPLETEDJapan · J1 League · 10/17/2026, 4:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Shimizu S-pulse · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Shimizu S-pulse 1-0 Gamba Osaka, with an exact score probability of 19%.
Prediction record
Final result
Shimizu S-pulse 2-2 Gamba Osaka
Original prediction
Shimizu S-pulse
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 01:42 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.25 | 41.6% | 51.1% | 9.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.37 | 27.7% | 27.8% | 0.1 pts |
| Away | 3.05 | 30.6% | 21.1% | -9.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.37 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.5 pts
Projected Score
Shimizu S-pulse 1–0 Gamba Osaka
Exact score probability: 19%
Predicted outcome
Shimizu S-pulse
Probability
51.1%
Model confidence
51.1%
Shimizu S-pulse has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
GF 12 · GA 9 · avg 2.40/1.80