Shimizu S-pulsevs
FC Tokyo
COMPLETEDJapan · J1 League · 9/2/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Tokyo · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (10%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Shimizu S-pulse 1-1 FC Tokyo
Original prediction
FC Tokyo
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.63 | 25.8% | 33.3% | 7.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.32 | 28.1% | 27.8% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 2.03 | 46.1% | 38.9% | -7.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.32 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–010%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
FC Tokyo
Probability
38.9%
Model confidence
38.9%
FC Tokyo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 4 · avg 0.60/0.80
GF 14 · GA 7 · avg 2.80/1.40