Shimizu S-pulsevs
Avispa Fukuoka
COMPLETEDJapan · J1 League · 9/12/2026, 9:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Avispa Fukuoka · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (11%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Shimizu S-pulse 1-0 Avispa Fukuoka
Original prediction
Avispa Fukuoka
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.86 | 32.7% | 35.5% | 2.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.11 | 30.1% | 28.3% | -1.8 pts |
| Away | 2.51 | 37.3% | 36.2% | -1.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–011%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Avispa Fukuoka
Probability
36.2%
Model confidence
36.2%
Avispa Fukuoka has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80