Shelbournevs
Derry City
COMPLETEDIreland · Premier Division · 9/11/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Shelbourne · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (10%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Shelbourne 0-1 Derry City
Original prediction
Shelbourne
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.31 | 40.2% | 40.4% | 0.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.33 | 27.8% | 25.7% | -2.1 pts |
| Away | 2.89 | 32.0% | 33.9% | 1.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–010%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Shelbourne
Probability
40.4%
Model confidence
40.4%
Shelbourne has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
GF 14 · GA 11 · avg 2.80/2.20